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Rollout and variants: Unfamiliar decisions: #8

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 16 June 2012, at 4:22 p.m.

In Response To: Unfamiliar decisions: #8 (Timothy Chow)

I ran here but the rollout favors 11/4. White's 3's play a lot better if Blue runs. Note that the decision is much closer in the two variants below.

		White is eXtremeGammon score: 4 pip: 26 7 point match pip: 95 score: 4 Blue is Timothy Chow
XGID=--FBBB-----A---------dbbB-:1:1:1:43:4:4:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.	Rollout1	11/4	eq: -1.516
	Player: Opponent: 3.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 96.76% (G:60.14% B:16.97%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-1.520...-1.512) Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/17	eq: -1.548 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 2.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 97.01% (G:62.78% B:11.82%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-1.552...-1.544) Duration: 5 minutes 16 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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Variant 1:

		White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 26 7 point match pip: 95 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--FBBB-----A---------dbbB-:1:1:1:53:4:4:0:7:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	11/3	eq: -1.523
	Player: Opponent: 3.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 96.97% (G:60.33% B:16.20%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-1.527...-1.519) Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/16	eq: -1.532 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 2.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 97.04% (G:61.01% B:10.80%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-1.536...-1.528) Duration: 4 minutes 52 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

Variant 2:

		White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 22 7 point match pip: 95 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--FBBB-----A---------cbbB-:1:1:1:43:4:4:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.	Rollout1	11/4	eq: -1.461
	Player: Opponent: 4.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 95.83% (G:56.92% B:18.24%) Conf: ± 0.005 (-1.466...-1.456) Duration: 5 minutes 21 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/17	eq: -1.470 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 4.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 95.22% (G:59.34% B:14.49%) Conf: ± 0.006 (-1.476...-1.464) Duration: 6 minutes 54 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Unfamiliar decisions: #8
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 15 June 2012, at 12:34 a.m.
  • Unfamiliar decisions: #8
    Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 15 June 2012, at 8:14 a.m.
    • Unfamiliar decisions: #8
      steve -- Saturday, 16 June 2012, at 1:24 a.m.
      • Unfamiliar decisions: #8
        Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 16 June 2012, at 7:34 a.m.
  • Unfamiliar decisions: #8
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 15 June 2012, at 5:53 p.m.
  • Unfamiliar decisions: #8
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 15 June 2012, at 6:45 p.m.
  • Rollout and variants: Unfamiliar decisions: #8
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 16 June 2012, at 4:22 p.m.