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How safe or bold do you want to be?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 18 June 2012, at 11:54 p.m.

In Response To: How safe or bold do you want to be? (Michael Depreli)

This is what I call a "buy now or buy later?" position. The metaphor is that if leaving a shot is "paying" then presumably hitting a shot is "buying." Also, one is more likely to buy if one has "enough cash" (i.e., enough bad rolls by White that lead to D/P).

If we play 22/15* then White's 3's are duplicated everywhere. But she still has 16 hitting rolls (including 22). Will she double from the bar? I don't think I would but I'd at least think about it.

If we don't hit, then we can play the totally safe 8/2 3/2 or the more aggressive 13/7 8/7. But if we're going to leave a direct shot then I'd rather hit, so I wouldn't play 13/7 8/7.

If we play 8/2 3/2, then White will most likely safety her outfield blot next turn, and then the odds are against our ever sending a second checker back. I think I'll take my chances now and hit with 22/15*.

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