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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 5/8
Posted By: benf In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/8 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Thursday, 21 June 2012, at 2:54 a.m.
Two immediate outcomes, we hit or we don't.
When we hit we are a big favorite. Its a good size pass I think once we hit so I estimate around 85% wins. I just cannot imagine very many gammons here, I would say once we hit no more then one in 15 games are gammons but I think it is closer to 5% then that.
When we do not hit we are a dog but not a huge dog. This is where the racing formulas that I have learned but not perfected would be mighty useful. I once constructed a perfect distributed bear off vs a crushed bear off and told myself it was going to be one of my reference positions, unless I open the file I am not going to be doing much referencing.... My best guess is that the reference position with white on roll will be around 40% wins for blue. This position won't reach that position though because I don't think I am leaving the blot there when I cannot hit. I guess that blue will win around 33% when we miss with gammons not happening for either side.
After all of that I roughly average the equity to 60% which was my gut feeling, it would have been a lot simpler to just throw that number out there...
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