Oppt needs 16% to take so our redoubling window closes at 84%. If there were no gammons, it would open at 50%. We win lots of gammons and lose very few so that affects the minimum doubling point. Redoubling to 8 only gains or loses when we win or lose a single game since a gammon for either side wins the match with the cube on 4. According to the (non stat sig) RO, ~ 45% of our wins and 91% of our losses are single wins/single losses. The gain from redoubling is therefore 45% of 16% while the loss is 91% of 16%. Risk/risk + gain is ~ 14.6/21.75, approx 67%. So the window opens at 67% and closes when oppt has an optional take/pass at 84%. The RO sez we're slightly over half the way in the window which usually means "no redouble" unless it's a real volatile position. This is pretty volatile since 66 and 55 always lose the mkt likewise any other 6 or 5 followed by a dance. That's 14.6 big mkt losers in 36 games. I redoubled but apparently it's very slightly better to take a roll.
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| XGID=aBBBbCC-B-a-------bcbbAb--:2:1:1:00:8:8:0:13:10 | ||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||
is Player 2| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 75.99% (G:41.99% B:2.48%) | 75.87% (G:48.68% B:0.52%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 24.01% (G:2.10% B:0.11%) | 24.13% (G:1.89% B:0.05%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.704 | +0.757 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.759 | ±0.002 (+0.757..+0.761) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.757 (-0.002) | ±0.002 (+0.755..+0.759) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.241) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.9% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 93.8% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2