| |
BGonline.org Forums
Play on?
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Play on? (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Friday, 29 June 2012, at 5:08 a.m.
If you wanted to know the cube action before the roll why didn't you post it without the roll? Just seems weird to do it the way you did it...
Anyway. The immediate sequence is easy to see. The on roll player blots with 8 rolls [62 52 42 21] and hit about 31% of the time. This means ~2.5 games or 7%. Now, we own the cube so we don't get cubed out as we would if our opponent owned it. The resulting position everyone should know as a reference and would be D/P but not by a lot so let's simplify and say we still win 1/5 games when we're hit. This brings our total losses down to 2 games or 5.5%.
Assuming we roll safely but with an ace involved we will be cashing next turn for the most part. That excludes [11 21] but includes the other 8 games and 32 because of how it plays so we can ignore those 10 games for losses. That leaves us with all the immediate big number where we'll play on [65 64 63 54 53 43] or 12 games where we play on and can leave a shot. Again we'll be hit about 31% of the time or 3.75 games. Figuring we are 50/50 again at this reference position of 8 off and all piles on the 8pt that will give another 2 games to our opponent bringing his total win % to about 11%. (I put it in bold because I doubt many read all of that jabber)
It's very clear to me in #2 and #3 that we have a play on without even thinking about anything. The fact that aces won't take off for our opp. in #2 and the extra crossovers and bare ace point in #3 make it obvious. In #2 it also means our win % may be ever so slightly higher because he still needs to make the ace.
The first position is the tough one. In general I'm a fan of playing on for many reasons, some of which don't apply here though. In a match I cash, money game I play on.
Stick
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.