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BGonline.org Forums
Which plan?
Posted By: Casper van der Tak In Response To: Which plan? (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Friday, 29 June 2012, at 12:08 p.m.
I like 24/13. If we play 13/2, it looks very close in the timing battle (mid point vs barpoint, assuming that we cannot find a good opportunity to escape a back checker later. Also, 13/2 slots the wrong point, and if we throw a bunch of 6s afterwards, we will look awkward (and what's worse, be awkward). We may be able to hit a shot in the outfield, when White unloads the checkers on the mid, but when we hit, we may be exposed in our own home board, may not be able to contain White, are open to return hits, and would still face the difficulty of escaping the last checker.
If we play 24/13, we violate the dictum not to race when behind. However, the single checker back will generate shots when White unloads the midpoint, and when we hit those fly shots, we escape our last checker and leave less returns (if any). We'd create an additional spare on the midpoint to play with, so we are much better off in the timing fight against the bar. White will bring in more attack material, but we might be able to run the last checker out before white launches an attack.
We don't slot a wrong point, so we can build a stronger home-board (in the long term) than after 13/2. We are less likely to end up with a bunch of checker on the 2 and an open 3 point.
White's open 5 point is important - if White attacks, we will have a number of chances to enter and fight back. And it looks likely that the 5 point will remain open for some time to come.
Finally, if you run, you create more difficult play options for White - with what numbers to attack, and with what numbers not? If you roll a 21, do you hit loose as White? 31? 41? Etc.
Not convinced, because don't race when behind is a very powerful concept, but here I think I'd run to improve the long term holding chances.
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