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BGonline.org Forums
Play on?
Posted By: ah_clem In Response To: Play on? (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Friday, 29 June 2012, at 1:45 p.m.
1) I count 8 rolls that leave a shot, so that's about 25%, then blue has to hit it (30%) and then white is closed out on the bar with 5 checkers off giving blue ~ 77% to win . In round numbers, a quarter of a third of three fourths is about 1/16th. So blue wins about 1 game in 16 here. Say 94% wins and 20% gammons.
The gammon probability is not so easy to estimate, but it's probably more that 1 in 8, so seems like holding is correct since it's too good.
2)Seems like blue is actually a bit stronger here since with the open ace point he can sometimes pick up an extra checker. But it's not enough to change my cube decisions. Gammons look about the same. Say, 92% and 20%
3)Here blue is stronger still, but the gammon rate goes up due to the two extra crossovers. I'll go with 89% and 25%.
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