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OLM Fr 06/29/12

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 29 June 2012, at 4:55 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Fr 06/29/12 (Giuliano Pietoso)

Pip count 120-134 should be about 78% cubeless GWC in a straight race, so 120-133 should be about 76.5%. Less here, with contact, perhaps about 74%; a hit isn't likely, since White has 13 checkers to play before being forced to leave the 13 point, but White may have to play a lot of numbers suboptimally behind the anchor, and the open five point (once we leave it) will hurt some. On the other hand, Blue may also have suboptimal plays, having to keep the anchor while being too far behind to make a race of it.

Since 66 65 63 55 53 44 33 and 22 clear the midpoint (30% of White's rolls), after which hitting chances are very small, perhaps about 15% of the immediate two-roll sequences (White rolls, Blue rolls) are market losers. White will usually continue to have market losers, as Neil pointed out, and is far enough ahead that most of immediate nonmarket losing sequences would lead to double/take next roll -- meaning, White needn't worry much about the few sequences that would lead him to wish he hadn't doubled now, since there aren't very many such sequences.

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