BGonline.org Forums

Play on? *** RO ***

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 29 June 2012, at 5:08 p.m.

In Response To: Play on? (Daniel Murphy)

One of these three positions -- the middle one -- I had in the Norwegian Championship final in 2002. I cashed, which turned out to be a borderline decision at the 6-away 12-away score. Not that my calculations at the time, if any, were so precise.

As we move Blue's checkers back from a full board to an empty ace point to a full 2-7 point prime, White's gammon chances increase from about 15% to 18% to over 29%.

Money Games.

White	21
Blue	83
Position ID: 23YDAhB/NgAAAA Match ID: AYEWAAAAAAAE

Alert: missed double ( -0.011685)! [doubtful]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.946869
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000000
2.	Double, take	+1.796340	+0.796340
3.	No double	+0.988315	-0.011685
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 2-cube 0.897174 0.152243 0.000278 - 0.102826 0.000000 0.000000 +0.946869 +0.988315 Standard error 0.000490 0.000667 0.000029 - 0.000490 0.000000 0.000000 0.000953 0.001114 Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.896296 0.154123 0.000319 - 0.103704 0.000000 0.000000 +1.894067 +1.796340 Standard error 0.000392 0.000728 0.000026 - 0.000392 0.000000 0.000000 0.001762 0.002564
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 918880073 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	21
Blue	93
Position ID: tt0DAhB/NgAAAA Match ID: AYEWAAAAAAAE

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.984445
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+1.019331
2.	Double, take	+1.875932	+0.856600
3.	Double, pass	+1.000000	-0.019331
Proper cube action:		Too good to redouble, pass (2.2%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 2-cube 0.902578 0.178922 0.000368 - 0.097422 0.000000 0.000000 +0.984445 +1.019331 Standard error 0.000454 0.000728 0.000034 - 0.000454 0.000000 0.000000 0.000984 0.001109 Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.900991 0.183081 0.000436 - 0.099009 0.000000 0.000000 +1.970998 +1.875932 Standard error 0.000420 0.000850 0.000032 - 0.000420 0.000000 0.000000 0.001885 0.002760
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 918880073 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	21
Blue	95
Position ID: tt0GAhB/NgAAAA Match ID: AYEWAAAAAAAE

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+1.086401
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+1.108068
2.	Double, take	+2.082014	+0.973946
3.	Double, pass	+1.000000	-0.108068
Proper cube action:		Too good to redouble, pass (10.0%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 2-cube 0.895810 0.294116 0.000666 - 0.104190 0.000000 0.000000 +1.086401 +1.108068 Standard error 0.000531 0.001152 0.000074 - 0.000531 0.000000 0.000000 0.001357 0.001501 Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.894296 0.297289 0.000865 - 0.105704 0.000000 0.000000 +2.173489 +2.082014 Standard error 0.000411 0.001241 0.000084 - 0.000411 0.000000 0.000000 0.002577 0.003198
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 918880073 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Original score White 13, Blue 7, match to 19. White on roll

Daniel	21
Asbjørn	93
Position ID: tt0DAhB/NgAAAA Match ID: AQFgAtAAOAAE

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.962732	(Money: +0.98407 +0.962732)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000000
2.	Double, take	+1.385599	+0.385599
3.	No double	+0.997228	-0.002772
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful White owns 2-cube 0.901487 0.180662 0.000443 - 0.098513 0.000000 0.000000 +0.962732 +0.997228 Standard error 0.000386 0.000807 0.000042 - 0.000386 0.000000 0.000000 0.000888 0.001012 Blue owns 4-cube 0.900553 0.253766 0.001568 - 0.099447 0.000000 0.000000 +1.563865 +1.385599 Standard error 0.000370 0.007244 0.000691 - 0.000370 0.000000 0.000000 0.001667 0.002808
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 918583807 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Play on?
  Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 29 June 2012, at 1:55 a.m.
  • Play on?
    benf -- Friday, 29 June 2012, at 2:18 a.m.
    • Play on?
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 29 June 2012, at 4:50 a.m.
      • Play on?
        benf -- Friday, 29 June 2012, at 6:08 a.m.
  • Play on?
    Stick -- Friday, 29 June 2012, at 5:08 a.m.
  • Play on?
    ah_clem -- Friday, 29 June 2012, at 1:45 p.m.
  • Play on?
    neilkaz -- Friday, 29 June 2012, at 3:36 p.m.
  • Play on? *** RO ***
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 29 June 2012, at 5:08 p.m.