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Rollout: Not quite your standard cube action

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 5:01 p.m.

In Response To: Not quite your standard cube action (Timothy Chow)

I judged this (correctly, I think) to be a big ND for money, and failed to adjust (enough) for the score.

		White is Player 1 score: 2 pip: 147 7 point match pip: 128 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a-B--FbC--adB----B-abb-b-:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	62.91% (G: 25.00% B: 1.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.09% (G: 10.72% B: 0.85%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	62.88% (G: 25.62% B: 2.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.12% (G: 11.29% B: 1.65%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.443
Redouble:	+1.164
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.893 (-0.107)
Redouble/Take:	+1.101 (+0.101)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.016 (+0.878...+0.909)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.022 (+1.079...+1.123)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Not quite your standard cube action
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 1 July 2012, at 5:48 p.m.
  • Not quite your standard cube action
    David Rennie -- Sunday, 1 July 2012, at 6:17 p.m.
  • Contrasting position
    David Levy -- Sunday, 1 July 2012, at 10:56 p.m.
    • Contrasting position
      David Rennie -- Sunday, 1 July 2012, at 11:16 p.m.
  • Rollout: Not quite your standard cube action
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 5:01 p.m.
    • Rollout: Not quite your standard cube action
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 4 July 2012, at 4:43 a.m.
      • Rollout: Not quite your standard cube action
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 27 August 2012, at 10:58 p.m.