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Hit or take off two?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 5:27 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or take off two? (Minerva)

If we don't hit, then White has 11 shots, and she needs at least 16 pips to get off the gammon, while we will still need 3 rolls to win the gammon (about 23 effective pips I think) because we have an odd number of checkers left. Hitting sets White back 4 pips, while giving her 14 shots, and we'll still get off in 3 rolls. The shots will rarely cost us the game but will cut into our gammon wins—but it's only 3 extra shots compared to not hitting. Since the gammon race is so close, I think hitting is indicated.

I think our gammon value would have to be considerably reduced to make ripping two correct. Not sure how reduced, though.

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or take off two?
  Minerva -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 12:45 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    Giuliano Pietoso -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 3:36 p.m.
    • Hit or take off two?
      benf -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 4:23 p.m.
      • Hit or take off two?
        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 5:41 p.m.
        • Hit or take off two?
          benf -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 6:16 p.m.
          • Hit or take off two?
            Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 6:39 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    Keene -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 4:59 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 5:27 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 5:37 p.m.
    • Hit or take off two?
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 4 July 2012, at 2:19 a.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 4 July 2012, at 5:39 a.m.
    • Hit or take off two? Actual statistics
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 4 July 2012, at 1:58 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two? ROLLOUT
    ah_clem -- Friday, 6 July 2012, at 8:12 p.m.