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Hit or take off two?

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 6:39 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or take off two? (benf)

When I read Giuliano's post I was also wondering whether there could be a general law to be learned here. I could imagine that gaining half a roll in the gammon race would double chances if our gammon chances are 'small' to begin with - something to do with the fact that (1+d) squared can be approximated by (1+2d) when d is small.

It is nothing more than a vague intuition, and I am too lazy to either test or develop this idea further. Perhaps someone smart like UBK or Timothy reads this, and could comment. Or someone equipped with rollout machines and a zeal for analysis.

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or take off two?
  Minerva -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 12:45 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    Giuliano Pietoso -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 3:36 p.m.
    • Hit or take off two?
      benf -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 4:23 p.m.
      • Hit or take off two?
        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 5:41 p.m.
        • Hit or take off two?
          benf -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 6:16 p.m.
          • Hit or take off two?
            Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 6:39 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    Keene -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 4:59 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 5:27 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 5:37 p.m.
    • Hit or take off two?
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 4 July 2012, at 2:19 a.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 4 July 2012, at 5:39 a.m.
    • Hit or take off two? Actual statistics
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 4 July 2012, at 1:58 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two? ROLLOUT
    ah_clem -- Friday, 6 July 2012, at 8:12 p.m.