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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 30 October 2007, at 2:54 a.m.

In Response To: 31P.22E.63 (Stick)

After an opening 42P most ppl accept that a 63 response should be played 24/18 13/10. The truth is the plays are TCTC even after a significant amount of trials. The differences between that 2nd roll decision and this 3rd roll decision seem to offset each other but in enough of a way to tilt in favor of the run instead of tilting in favor of the split as 42P 63? does.

The first and possibly most important difference is your opponent has a spare on his 8pt. When she hits with aces she no longer breaks the 8pt to hit. This is an argument against splitting and for running.

In favor of splitting is the fact that here you have a stronger board (though your opponent has already anchored up), you don't fear an offensive hitting exchange, but then again, neither does she. She has both an anchor and another strong inner board point. Your board strength is more than nullified by White's 3pt anchor. I'm not sure which way this argument leans towards but I don't feel it is in favor of the split either. A bonus of the split is that 52 doesn't hit,61 is duplicated, and 31 your opponent won't know whether to hit or make the 5pt.

gnubg	159
user	163
Position ID: mHPwAQywZ/ABMA Match ID: cIkZAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	24/15	-0.0652
			0.4907 0.0986 0.0039 - 0.5093 0.1353 0.0047 -0.0562 -0.0652 0.0006 0.0005 0.0001 - 0.0006 0.0006 0.0001 0.0013 0.0036
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			10368 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1022034599 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	24/18 13/10	-0.0718 ( -0.0067)
			0.4864 0.1177 0.0048 - 0.5136 0.1471 0.0064 -0.0582 -0.0718 0.0006 0.0006 0.0002 - 0.0006 0.0007 0.0002 0.0015 0.0041
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			10368 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1022034599 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 31P.22E.63
  Stick -- Sunday, 28 October 2007, at 11:23 p.m.
  • 31P.22E.63
    neilkaz -- Monday, 29 October 2007, at 4:11 a.m.
  • 31P.22E.63
    Caryl Stephanson -- Monday, 29 October 2007, at 5:38 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 30 October 2007, at 2:54 a.m.