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Hit or take off two?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 4 July 2012, at 5:39 a.m.

In Response To: Hit or take off two? (Minerva)

If Blue were only interested in bearing off in the fewest rolls, he should play 5/off 1/off leaving 5 checkers, so a miss wouldn't increase the number of rolls he needed to bear off. Not to mention that 5/off 5/4* gets hit 3/36 more times.

But 5/off 5/4* also sets White back 4 pips -- he'll need to roll at least 20 pips to avoid gammon instead of at least 16 -- and 1 crossover -- he'll need 5 crossovers instead of 4 to get off the gammon.

Since 16 pips is about 2 average rolls, and 20 pips is about 2 and 1/2 (that is, 3 rolls, since we don't roll half-rolls), and Blue is often off in 3 or 2 rolls after either play, the benefit of making White roll about 3 average rolls instead of 2 to get off the gammon should be huge here.

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or take off two?
  Minerva -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 12:45 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    Giuliano Pietoso -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 3:36 p.m.
    • Hit or take off two?
      benf -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 4:23 p.m.
      • Hit or take off two?
        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 5:41 p.m.
        • Hit or take off two?
          benf -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 6:16 p.m.
          • Hit or take off two?
            Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 6:39 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    Keene -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 4:59 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 5:27 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 3 July 2012, at 5:37 p.m.
    • Hit or take off two?
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 4 July 2012, at 2:19 a.m.
  • Hit or take off two?
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 4 July 2012, at 5:39 a.m.
    • Hit or take off two? Actual statistics
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 4 July 2012, at 1:58 p.m.
  • Hit or take off two? ROLLOUT
    ah_clem -- Friday, 6 July 2012, at 8:12 p.m.