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Prop!

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Tuesday, 30 October 2007, at 8:27 a.m.

In Response To: Prop! (Stick)

I think 14/9 seems clear here, even though the actual equity must not be great. White leads in the race, and the most important thing is not being hit - 14/9 obviously yields one less hitting number for blue. The second-most important thing is life after death, and 14/9 gives blue only 11 and 13 as hit and covers, whereas 14/10 7/6 gives 11,12,23. The third-most important is bear-off efficiency - and while 7/6 gives a crossover white's open 2-point makes it highly unlikely that white will bear off cleanly, and thus making full use of the crossover. Also with blue's rotten distribution and 4 long crossovers in the outfield, white is likely to win the race anyway even if the crossover would count.

So avoid them shots and play 14/9

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