Novi 2012 — Stick vs. Ken Bame — Prime vs. Cracked

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Novi 2012 — Stick vs. Ken Bame — Prime vs. Cracked — RO

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 8 July 2012, at 5:01 a.m.

In Response To: Novi 2012 — Stick vs. Ken Bame — Prime vs. Cracked (Taper_Mike)

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In most prime-vs.-prime situations, it is essential to step up to the edge of an opponent’s five-point prime whenever you can. At Novi 2012, Game 4 in Stick’s match against Ken Bame featured consecutive decisions where just the opposite was true.
Ken is just about out of time in the positions below. He has been trying to make make his 2pt, but the dice have not been cooperating. By now, he may be thinking of slotting in front of his prime. Putting a blot there just gives him a green light. By hanging back, Stick affords himself the opportunity to hit after Ken slots, and gain the valuable tempo he needs to advance his anchor, or else escape a runner.
Stick got it right both times.
Rollouts are posted below. The first position did not appear in my original post. It occurred on turn preceding the position in that post.
Mike

Game 4, Move 21

White is Ken Bame

score: 0
pip: 86

11 point match

pip: 103
score: 6

Blue is Stick

XGID=-CCBD--------a--a-bcccb-C-:1:1:1:41:6:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 4/3 eq: -1.2952
Player:
Opponent: 4.25% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
95.75% (G:31.44% B:1.33%) Conf.: ±0.0015 (-1.2967...-1.2937) - [96.6%]
Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 2/1 eq: -1.2972 (-0.0020)
Player:
Opponent: 4.25% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
95.75% (G:31.60% B:1.33%) Conf.: ±0.0015 (-1.2987...-1.2957) - [3.4%]
Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 24/23 eq: -1.3126 (-0.0173)
Player:
Opponent: 5.21% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
94.79% (G:34.08% B:1.85%) Conf.: ±0.0018 (-1.3143...-1.3108) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 11 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35018289
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Game 4, Move 22

White is Ken Bame

score: 0
pip: 78

11 point match

pip: 102
score: 6

Blue is Stick

XGID=-CCCC----------a--bcccc-C-:1:1:1:51:6:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 2/1 eq: -1.2775
Player:
Opponent: 5.09% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
94.91% (G:31.37% B:1.42%) Conf.: ±0.0015 (-1.2791...-1.2760) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 3/2 eq: -1.2879 (-0.0104)
Player:
Opponent: 4.85% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
95.15% (G:31.83% B:1.42%) Conf.: ±0.0016 (-1.2895...-1.2864) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 37 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 4/3 eq: -1.2899 (-0.0124)
Player:
Opponent: 4.68% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
95.32% (G:31.65% B:1.40%) Conf.: ±0.0016 (-1.2914...-1.2883) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 22 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 24/23 eq: -1.3494 (-0.0719)
Player:
Opponent: 5.27% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
94.73% (G:36.85% B:2.18%) Conf.: ±0.0017 (-1.3511...-1.3476) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35018289
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2