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Backgame!

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 9 July 2012, at 1:45 p.m.

In Response To: Backgame! (Timothy Chow)

White's raw takepoint is 9/32 or about 28%. Meanwhile, gammon losses don't cost as much as usual since blue doesn't get the full value of the doubled gammon.

On the other side of the coin, white is about to crunch and any six will force her to abandon one of the anchors. Which is to say that 70 pips of timing is a bit shy for a take.

Only 63 65 55 and 33 force blue to leave a shot (although the structure is ugly for several other rolls. 1 in 9 to get ~50% to hit are slim odds, and even then white doesn't win all the time. Pass.

Is it too good? White needs 13 transitions to save gammon and blue will probably need only 12 after this roll. So say something like 40% gammons. I think that's more than twice the single point loss rate, so I'll play on and maybe cash next turn if thing don't work out so well.

TG/P

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