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Backgame!

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 9 July 2012, at 5:35 p.m.

In Response To: Backgame! (mick dyett)

whites takepoint at this score must be lower than what it is for money...i think around 20%

Lower or higher?

Action Score MWC
Pass ->6a2a ->20%
Take/Win 2 ->4a3a ->43%
Take/Lose 2->6a1a ->11%
Take/Lose 3->6a0a->0%
Take/Win 4 ->2a3a->60%

Assume White never gives Blue a takable redouble. Then if

no losses are gammons, take point = 9/(9+23) = 28%
1/4 of losses are gammons,take point = 30.3%
1/3 of losses are gammons,take point = 34.2%
1/2 of losses are gammons,take point = 37.2%
3/4 of losses are gammons,take point = 41.9%
all losses are gammons,take point = 46.5%

But White should have a redouble on early double shots, since the redoubling window opens at about 40%.

If, for example, 1/2 of losses are gammons, but all of White's wins are after redouble/takes on a ~50/50 double shot,

White WinsR/T wins 4R/T loses 3NRD loses 2NRD loses 3Take MWCBest cube action
20% 20% 20% 30% 30% 15.3%Pass
25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 17.7%Pass
30% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20.2%Take (?)

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