This is a pretty big pass for money. White is not without chances, but her timing is too poor for her to take.
ATS it's a different story. Blue can't get gammoned, but doubling reduces Blue's gammon value, and White has significant recube vig. The rollout says it's a close take.
What's less obvious to me is the doubling decision. According to the rollout it's a big double. Doubling is often wrong at 3a6a when the leader has significant gammon chances, as here, since as already mentioned, doubling reduces Blue's gammon value. However, since the take is close, there are a lot of market losers. For Blue not to have a double, he basically has to be TG, and there are too many losses and not enough gammons for Blue to be TG.
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| XGID=-bBbDFB------------bbbbba-:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 70.21% (G: 35.70% B: 6.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 29.79% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.85% (G: 36.01% B: 11.33%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.15% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.909 |
| Double: | +1.443 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.873 (-0.101) |
| Double/Take: | +0.975 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.025) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 2282 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.010 (+0.863...+0.883) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.017 (+0.958...+0.991) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 99.9% |
| Duration: 12 hours 51 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross