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16-away 22-away cube action

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Wednesday, 11 July 2012, at 6:00 a.m.

In Response To: 16-away 22-away cube action (Daniel Murphy)

Looks like an easy 8-cube give. Is it a take?

White hits 25 times and rarely loses after hitting, His losses after hitting are more than offset by his wins after missing, since white only wins 7 or 8% if he drops the redouble to 16 and he likely wins double that if he takes and reships to 32. Thus, blue most wait for his position to improve a lot, after a miss, before redoubling.

White wins the game ~98% after hitting and ~10% after missing(he would win more if the game were played out to conclusion, but blue's cube is not completely dead). If the assumptions are correct, White wins 24.5+1.1 or 25.6 games and loses 10.4 games.

Blue needs about ~32% to take a dead 8-cube here. I have analyzed this in a way that makes it a pseudo dead-cube and blue has well under 30%.

D/P

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