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Michy vs. Victor: first recube decision

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 11 July 2012, at 8:13 p.m.

In Response To: Michy vs. Victor: first recube decision (higonefive)

If blue shakes a six (about 30%) he wins almost all the time. Say 29% wins for blue outright by rolling a six immediately, and about half of those are gammons.

Of the 70% of games where Blue doesn't enter, white leaps out 30% of the time and wins almost all of them.

So, white wins 30% of 70% by leaping after blue dances. That's 21% of the time

The remaining ~50% gets divvied up somewhat proportionally, although blue's chance of entering grows the longer this goes on, but his "automatic" wins just by entering go way down once the shot is gone.

Looks like blue has about a 60% chance of winning, plus some gammon chances, and 30% immediate market losers. I'd turn the cube here. I think white has to take, the question is whether she recubes if blue dances.

D/T.

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