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Michy vs. Victor: first recube decision; RO

Posted By: higonefive
Date: Thursday, 12 July 2012, at 4:29 a.m.

In Response To: Michy vs. Victor: first recube decision (higonefive)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 67
23 point match
pip: 96
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aCCBCBAa-----------cbccbA-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:23:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63,49% (G:13,06% B:0,40%) 63,96% (G:12,84% B:0,38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36,51% (G:5,32% B:0,04%) 36,04% (G:5,44% B:0,04%)
Cubeless Equities +0,353 +0,720
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,494 (-0,089)±0,005 (+0,489..+0,499)
Redouble/Take:+0,582±0,008 (+0,575..+0,590)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,418)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 10 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Presuming Blue dances.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 96
23 point match
pip: 67
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCCBCBAa-----------cbccbA-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:23:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 48,37% (G:7,15% B:0,05%) 48,83% (G:6,63% B:0,04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 51,63% (G:3,49% B:0,09%) 51,17% (G:3,44% B:0,11%)
Cubeless Equities +0,003 0,000
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,090±0,005 (+0,085..+0,096)
Redouble/Take:-0,331 (-0,422)±0,011 (-0,342..-0,321)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,910)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 24,1%
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 6 minutes 10 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Redoubling to 8 is a huge blunder. Only the sequence dance, 6X, dance will be a killer (2,85%).

Not doubling can be right, but i don't see the reason. I have learned applying Woolsey's Law that a 100% take is a not matter, to decide not to double. It depends on the volatility.

So, what is going on here?

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