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comparision 1xX, 3xY, 5xZ

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Friday, 13 July 2012, at 10:54 p.m.

In Response To: comparision 1xX, 3xY, 5xZ (eXtreme Gammon)

>> Do you plan for a 25 point match to go to DMP?

Well, yes and no!

And it also depends upon the format of the tournament - I will grant that like Mthutan says in his last post. WC is one pure cup format, and it sounds like there are plenty of headroom time-wise. In that scenario in particular, you don't need to plan for the worst of it.

However, a lot of other scenarios don't give you that freedom. Especially various Swiss formats, where you have to wrap up all matches in one round, before you plan the next depending on results. But also when calculating match lengths in more tight tournaments (single day tournaments, etc.). or planning the Final (even WC) if you have a "latest end point".

So, coming back to your question, do you plan for DMP? Of course, you'd never plan for the average - that would put you into trouble all too often. Back in the analogue clock days, you were basically planning for DMP, since you had the allotted time for each player in a match. You could argue that both players never ran out, but in the majority of the time left over something both of them, so you could subtract the breaks or perhaps even some of the playtime.

If you were planning for best of 5, you would probably use the same "analogue" time allotted, times 5. You could subtract a little bit more, since you'd know that it would be very unlikely that all 5 matches went to DMP, BUT, players sometimes use the time available to them even though their match is only a few games long, and you could also expect them to take breaks in between their matches.

So, are you then planning for the 3/4 quartile of matchlenght, or the 90th% mark, or what? I don't know. My point was just, the higher you aim, the more the difference you'd get comparing 1 x long with 5 x short, since there's probably another spread at the top of the distribution...

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