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Rollout: Even Stick can see Play B here

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 15 July 2012, at 12:21 a.m.

In Response To: Even Stick can see Play B here (Timothy Chow)

I used XGR+ to look at this decision for money, and it said it was close. (But I didn't do a money rollout. Maybe someone can volunteer to do so and post the results?)

ATS, the rollout says to anchor. 4-away/many-away seems to be a tricky score. Sometimes the score calls for aggression, because of the high value of a doubled gammon. However, I think you have to have a more dominant position than this one for that logic to apply. Your opponent is also looking for a doubled gammon so if she has a stronger board then anchoring seems to be the prudent course of action.





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 147
7 point match
pip: 174
score: 3

Blue is Timothy Chow
XGID=----a-DBC-a-eC---b-d--b-BA:0:0:1:43:3:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout1Bar/21 24/21eq: -0.279
Player:
Opponent:		 44.03% (G:11.22% B:0.98%)
55.97% (G:12.29% B:0.66%)		Conf: ± 0.018 (-0.297...-0.261)
Duration: 8 hours 41 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 13/10* eq: -0.326 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		 44.96% (G:11.75% B:1.64%)
55.04% (G:17.25% B:1.23%)		Conf: ± 0.018 (-0.344...-0.308)
Duration: 9 hours 30 minutes
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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