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Is it possible for humans to solve this cube ats?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 15 July 2012, at 5:41 p.m.

In Response To: Is it possible for humans to solve this cube ats? (Casper van der Tak)

I think this is a take, too. One thing that would be good to know—and I feel that I ought to know this, but I don't—is the percentage X of games in which Blue gets hit at least once starting from the following position. (This should be easy to find out with a suitable GNU rollout, by the way.)

Match to 1, Tied at 0-0
Blue to play 21
White50

Blue60
GNUBg Id: AAAA23Y3AgAAAA:cIkoAAAAAAAA
XGID=bBBBCCB--A----------------:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:1

I'm guessing that X is between 5% and 10%. This means that in the original position, White still has chances even if Blue escapes. And of course, Blue cracks immediately on 64 44, and risks cracking next turn if he doesn't roll a 5. Not that cracking loses, but it gives White additional winning chances.

Hard to estimate, but if we had a good handle on X then I think we could get close.

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