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Is it possible for humans to solve this cube ats?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 15 July 2012, at 7:53 p.m.

In Response To: Is it possible for humans to solve this cube ats? (Timothy Chow)

I'm guessing that [the percentage X of games in which Blue gets hit at least once starting from the following position] is between 5% and 10%.

In Tim's position, a Gnubg 2-ply rollout says:

Hits by White in 14.74% of games, hits by Blue in 13.42% of games.

An additional statistic, for those games in which there is at least one hit:

Average number of moves for first hit: White 9.12, Blue 10.32

But the position is quite different from the original. Against 2 on the bar and 13 checkers off, Blue will have incentives to leave blots and to hit that he doesn't have in the original position, where (once he has escaped) Blue need only bear off safely to win the game.

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