| |
BGonline.org Forums
Would you?
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Would you? (Dmitriy Obukhov)
Date: Monday, 16 July 2012, at 7:13 a.m.
At scores like this it helps to take an overview at the beginning of the game as to what is going on. Here's my quick overview that has nothing specifically to do with this problem.
- Since it's 3a 9a I know the 3a player will never have a proper cube when there is significant gammon chances for either side.
- Since it's 3a 9a I know 3a will be looking to cube early esp. if a gammonish position arises.
- By cubing as 9a we increase our gammon value.
- By cubing as 9a we decrease our opp's gammon value.
- By cubing as 9a we essentially take the cube out of the game for good for our opponent. He gets almost no use out of cube ownership.
- The take points are roughly 23% for the 3a player and 16% for the 9a player. (live cube)
With all that in mind you should have an approach to the game. Now, as for the problem, these are the types of problems that I personally hate cubing unless it's a much more powerful type of cube from the bar. This is one of those cubes that I look at, cock my head sideways, think it may be a cube technically against XG then I straighten myself and roll against humans. Nobody on the planet is passing this and my play may be easier than the other side to play, I still don't think it is hard for my opponent.
There is clearly a fair amount of volatility to the position with 14/36 rolls I'd classify as good...the problem is the other 22 rolls are pretty horrific. We could babble on now about when our window opens and make estimates for winning percentages and gammons but on gut feel alone I can't hand my opponent this cube where he just picks it up and puts it happily(?) on his side of the board without thought.
Stick
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.