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ROLLOUT Is it possible for humans to solve this cube ats?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 16 July 2012, at 6:07 p.m.

In Response To: ROLLOUT Is it possible for humans to solve this cube ats? (benf)

A Gnubg rollout reports similar results:

WinWin (G)Win (BG)LoseLose (G)Lose (BG)CFCL
ND.7949.3745.0227.2051.0222.0006.8598.8932
DT.8022.4807.0089.1973.0263.0005.9414.9414

What really happens in the rollout:

WinWin 2 pointsWin 3 pointsLoseLose 2 pointsLose 4 points
ND.8055.3850.4205.1945.1945.0400
DT.8070.0000.8070.1930.0000.1930

So, basically:

Blue loses equity with Double/Take in about 15.45% of games which now lose 4 points instead of 2. This costs Blue .1545 * .4005 ME = 0.0618 ME

But Blue gains equity with Double/Take in about 38.50% of games which now win 3 points instead of 2. This gains Blue

.3850 * .1856 ME = 0.0714 ME

All other outcomes (White's and Blue's gammon wins on a 2-cube after No double) don't matter, and since the Gain is more than the Loss, Blue should double.

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