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match to 7 recube to 8 from the bar - ROLLOUT

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 19 July 2012, at 1:38 p.m.

In Response To: match to 7 recube to 8 from the bar (ah_clem)

Well, 64 views, but no bites. Is this problem too easy?

The take seemed clear to me, but so did the cube. Blue is clearly the favorite since he's on roll, almost any six looks like a market loser, and there is no recube vig.

XG says otherwise, and I'm struggling to understand why it's not a cube. Any ideas?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 66
7 point match
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aDB-CCB-----------abcbbdA:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.86% (G:6.24% B:0.19%) 58.14% (G:4.68% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.14% (G:1.32% B:0.01%) 41.86% (G:1.40% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.202 +0.311
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.400±0.004 (+0.396..+0.404)
Redouble/Take:+0.311 (-0.089)±0.005 (+0.306..+0.316)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.600)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 24 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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