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Pick Your Poison

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Thursday, 19 July 2012, at 11:52 p.m.

In Response To: Pick Your Poison (Taper_Mike)

8/6(2) leaves less shots on next roll and bears in remaining point more often than 7/5(2). 8/7, 8/6, 2/1 leaves no shots next roll, but only 5 rolls bear in. it is safe for next roll, but not safe for the following roll. If you make this play then 31 out of 36 times you will have a position slightly more dangerous than after 8/6(2). It is reasonable to assume that chances of getting hit in next two rolls are smallest after 8/7, 8/6, 2/1 than the other two plays. This play however likely to win less gammons since he will start bearing off later. There is a long term security in 7/5(2). Make this play and you will leave less shots later if you survive first 2-3 rolls. I am not sure if you need to be concerned with a long term security dealing with 22pt anchor. I wouldn't. I would have played 8/6(2)here.

Messages In This Thread

• Pick Your Poison
  Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 19 July 2012, at 7:34 p.m.
  • Pick Your Poison
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Thursday, 19 July 2012, at 11:52 p.m.
  • Pick Your Poison
    ah_clem -- Friday, 20 July 2012, at 1:58 p.m.
  • Pick Your Poison
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 20 July 2012, at 10:48 p.m.
  • Pick Your Poison — Rollout & Analysis
    Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 21 July 2012, at 8:34 a.m.
    • Pick Your Poison — Rollout & Analysis
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 21 July 2012, at 4:45 p.m.