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Matches

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Friday, 20 July 2012, at 9:55 p.m.

In Response To: Matches (christian munk-christensen)

Yes, CMC, the WC match file posted on DBgF forums is indeed the "correct" one. Made from the live transcription, then verified and corrected using both the i-net stream and the local video recording, Steen told me.

I've run the file through XGR++, and the stats ended up like this:

Nevzat Michi • Level of Play Expert (-0,0130) World Class (-0,0081) • Performance Rating 6,51 4,04 • Checker Play Expert (-0,0125) World Class (-0,0072) • Cube Play Advanced (-0,0159) Expert (-0,0129) • Luck Insignificant (+0,0004) Insignificant (-0,0004) • Total Errors (Blunders) 73 (31) 55 (18)

Equity (Cost) -6,496 (-38,75%) -3,946 (-20,19%)

Decisions 499 488 • Checker Errors (Blunders) 59 (25) 42 (13)

Equity (Cost) -5,240 (-33,84%) -2,962 (-16,62%)

Unforced Moves 420 412 • Doubles (Blunders) 10 (4) 11 (4)

Equity (Cost) -0,929 (-3,79%) -0,868 (-3,13%)

- Wrong Doubles -0,110 (-0,39%) -0,121 (-0,51%)

- Missed Doubles -0,819 (-3,40%) -0,748 (-2,62%)

Cube Decisions 67 63 • Takes (Blunders) 4 (2) 2 (1)

Equity (Cost) -0,326 (-1,12%) -0,116 (-0,44%)

- Wrong Takes -0,248 (-0,78%) -0,091 (-0,35%)

- Wrong Passes -0,079 (-0,34%) -0,025 (-0,09%)

Take Decisions 12 13 • Jokers 61 54

Luck (Cost) +0,427 (+58,91%) -0,427 (-58,91%)

Rolls 485 484

Luck based rating 41,18% favorite 58,82% favorite

Luck based Elo 1569 1631

It was a hefty rollercoaster ending, with Michi being 98% match favorite at one point in game 20, only to let Nevzat back in the match.

Then in the very next game, at 21-all, Nevzat was 97%+ match favorite, with Michi needing double 3's or higher to save gammon. He rolled the 3's and the match continued.

Two games later, Nevzat was the world champion 2012.

Interesting to see, that Nevzat had a nervous start to the match, playing a relatively high PR through game 14, then sort of shaking of these nerves and picking up his game for the last 9-10 games... Michi had a strong showing all the way through, and on top of good moves, he rolled well in the non-contact positions. He could as easily had become the world champion.

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