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21st Roll 21 Rollout

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 22 July 2012, at 4:20 p.m.

In Response To: 21st Roll 21 (Paul Weaver)

23/21 6/5 duplicates White's 4s and gives Blue a chance to start building a prime. If White hits loose, Blue has many numbers from the bar that cover the 5pt. If White makes the 4pt with 31, Blue is not yet dead; he still has 15 numbers from the bar that cover the 5pt, giving him a chance to prime White's back checker.

Rollout of cube action after the best play is also posted.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 128
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 109
score: 0

Blue is XG Roller+
XGID=-aBB--E-ABBa----bccbc--A--:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout123/21 6/5eq: -0.894
Player:
Opponent:		28.64% (G:8.74% B:0.40%)
71.36% (G:19.30% B:0.97%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.899...-0.888) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout19/7 8/7eq: -0.915 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		26.92% (G:6.37% B:0.17%)
73.08% (G:14.38% B:0.54%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.920...-0.909) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 07 seconds
3.Rollout123/21 9/8eq: -0.929 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		26.68% (G:7.80% B:0.25%)
73.32% (G:16.40% B:0.61%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.934...-0.923) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 51 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aCBCCB----Abba-da-bbA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.13% (G:16.96% B:0.88%) 71.52% (G:19.37% B:1.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.87% (G:8.59% B:0.37%) 28.48% (G:8.95% B:0.42%)
Cubeless Equities +0.511 +1.082
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.678 (-0.222)±0.009 (+0.669..+0.687)
Double/Take:+0.900±0.015 (+0.885..+0.915)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.100)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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