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Matches

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Monday, 23 July 2012, at 9:19 p.m.

In Response To: Matches (rew)

I'm pretty confident that this metric (MWC Loss) doesn't exactly add up to such a conclusion. But that's beside the point here...

No, can't help it, sorry:

I guess that the player who won here (Mr. Missed a Double) was a little bit more than lucky? What % favorite would you say he were in this match?

Mr. Missed a Double Random Guy • Total Errors (Blunders) 83 (83) 3 (2)

Equity (Cost) -11,129 (-141,56%) -1,229 (-17,93%) • Jokers 83 85

Luck (Cost) +8,620 (+132,13%) -8,620 (-132,13%)

Rolls 91 90

Luck based rating 3,61% favorite 96,39% favorite

Luck based Elo 776 2424

----

Was he really a -23,63% favorite?

Mr. Missed a Double won the 3 point match, he played the lowest error-rate btw, and he made only one mis-evaluation in the entire match. There's no doubt in my mind that he was by far the strongest player of the two, and his error would be explained by adjusting for a weaker opponent!

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