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Rollout: Volatility + Score = Double?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 23 July 2012, at 11:10 p.m.

In Response To: Volatility + Score = Double? (Timothy Chow)

I missed this cube. Part of the story is that even if Blue misses, Blue's powerful board gives him a lot of gammons if the game turns around, so White will be reluctant to redouble to 4. Still seems like a pretty aggressive cube to me.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 118
7 point match
pip: 110
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBCC--Aa------cbeb---aB:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 55.19% (G: 27.88% B: 1.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.81% (G: 10.79% B: 0.52%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 55.28% (G: 28.08% B: 1.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.72% (G: 10.30% B: 0.55%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.290
Double:+0.668
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.327 (-0.123)
Double/Take:+0.450
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.550)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.019 (+0.308...+0.345)
Confidence Double: ± 0.025 (+0.425...+0.474)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 8 hours 07 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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