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Rollout: Three out of four 4's are easy...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 26 July 2012, at 1:50 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: Three out of four 4's are easy... (Timothy Chow)

I posted the position below about two months ago, but recently decided to take another look at it. I think I can articulate a bit better now why 14/10 beats 21/17. See below.

Match to 1, Tied at 0-0
Blue to play 44
White43

Blue127
GNUBg Id: 7x8AAAR2ZxkBEA:cAkyAAAAAAAA
XGID=--a-BCC-BA-B--A--------hdA:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:1:1

After 14/10, we get the position below. Strategically, White would like to step up with an ace in order to escape. If she does that, though, then all of Blue's rolls play well, because Blue can use an ace to complete his six-prime and can point on White if he doesn't roll an ace. Some rolls complete the prime and point on White; note in particular that 66 is a joker for Blue. Blue's rolls play so well, in fact, that White probably shouldn't play 23/22 with an ace, instead staying back to discourage White from making the 3pt with 4's and 5's.

Match to 1, Tied at 0-0
White to play 21
White43

Blue111
GNUBg Id: 7x8AAAR2txUAAQ:MIEoAAAAAAAA
XGID=--a-BCCBBAA----------A-hd-:0:0:-1:21:0:0:0:1:1

Now look at the position below, after Blue plays 21/17. Blue's numbers aren't as well diversified as after 14/10. Note that 66 doesn't play so well any more. Now White probably should step up if she rolls an ace.

What I missed when encountering this position the first time was that I should be looking at the front of my prime as well as at the back of my prime. 21/17 would work better if my sole goal were to cover the 9pt, but that's not the only thing to focus on in this position.

Match to 1, Tied at 0-0
White to play 21
White43

Blue111
GNUBg Id: 7x8AAAR2twURAA:MIEoAAAAAAAA
XGID=--a-BCCBBA----A--A-----hd-:0:0:-1:21:0:0:0:1:1

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