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Rollout: If music be the food of love...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 28 July 2012, at 12:17 a.m.

In Response To: If music be the food of love... (Timothy Chow)

I cashed this one, which was probably a mistake. Even though, unlike Dmitriy and Stick, I can easily see myself whoppering later in this game, deciding to play on only requires me to look ahead to my next roll, when I can re-evaluate. There are not too many opportunities to make a big mistake on my checker play this turn, just as there are not too many ways that I can regain my market.





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 160
7 point match
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Timothy Chow
XGID=a---BcDCCA---B---cce------:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 88.78% (G: 13.29% B: 0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 11.22% (G: 0.95% B: 0.09%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 87.20% (G: 16.80% B: 0.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 12.80% (G: 1.04% B: 0.08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.902
Double:+1.846
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+1.021
Double/Take:+1.740 (+0.719)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (-0.021)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+1.016...+1.027)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+1.725...+1.756)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 54 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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