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Rollout

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 29 July 2012, at 1:03 a.m.

In Response To: 8-cube? (John O'Hagan)

The mostly one-sided gammon threat would force Black to pass at most scores, but the very low 8-cube gammon value makes it a close take ATS. Clear redouble though since the take is close and 6s,52, and 22 lose the market. Another reason for White to redouble is that Black's cube ownership vig will be reduced since White's 16-cube takepoint is just his MWC at 11a-3a (~10%). Most 5s are pretty good as well for White since they make a 6-prime (even though these don't lose the market ATS). R/close T is correct.

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 93
13 point match
pip: 92
score: 2

is Player 1
XGID=a-BCBBCA----A-a---acbcbbA-:2:1:1:00:2:2:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.68% (G:39.39% B:2.13%) 72.17% (G:37.38% B:2.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.32% (G:3.13% B:0.13%) 27.83% (G:2.79% B:0.25%)
Cubeless Equities +0.796 +1.056
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.884 (-0.085)±0.006 (+0.877..+0.890)
Redouble/Take:+0.969±0.008 (+0.961..+0.977)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.031)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 24 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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