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Rollout

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 30 July 2012, at 6:02 p.m.

In Response To: Recube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

Trailer needs 11% to take. White has 9 blotting numbers which get hit 30% of the time = 2.7 hits. Black wins about 2 of these and needs close to 2 more to get to 11% wins. If White covers cleanly, Black probably only wins about 5%. Not all of White's 27 safe numbers are equally good however...62,52, and 32 are clearly worse than the others. Another "good" sequence for Black is when White rolls one of his 9 bad numbers and Black then dances - since White might roll another clunker next time. Looks like this extra vig is enough to give Black a close take.

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 90
7 point match
pip: 60
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=aBADB-F-----a------cdb-bb-:1:1:1:00:4:1:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 87.98% (G:4.75% B:0.04%) 88.22% (G:4.73% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 12.02% (G:0.03% B:0.00%) 11.78% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.793 +1.265
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.870 (-0.098)±0.003 (+0.867..+0.873)
Redouble/Take:+0.968±0.006 (+0.962..+0.973)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.032)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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