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Cube from the roof at -7-3

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 31 July 2012, at 9:12 p.m.

In Response To: Cube from the roof at -7-3 (Klaus Evers)

If you pass, you're 3a 6a for 71% MWC. If you take and win, you're 1a 7a crawford for 91% If you take and lose you're 3a 5a for 65%

So, you're risking 6 to gain 20.

Your raw takepoint is then risk/(risk + gain) = 6/26 = 23%.

This is about the same as the takepoint for money (raw takepoint is slightly less here, but your recube vig is less as well) So, if you think it's a take for money, it must be a take AtS or at least close.

My opinion is that it's not a take for money or AtS. Blue has an advantage in position, race, and threats, plus there is significant gammon chances. Doubled gammon losses are worse in short matches than for money, so if there's a difference between money play and AtS, my hunch is it is to be found in the POG.

I'd pass AtS and for money play.

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