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Cube from the roof at -7-3

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Tuesday, 31 July 2012, at 10:31 p.m.

In Response To: Cube from the roof at -7-3 (ah_clem)

Both sides will win a relatively high fraction of gammons, say 1/3 each (note the diversification after an immediate dance). You need to include this in the assessment of the take point. It becomes risking 11 to gain 24 if you do that, for a take point of 11/35*100% = 31.4% let's make this 31% because of the recube vig (not worth much, but some).

That would mean that cubeless for money the position would need to be worth slightly more than 0.5 (perhaps 0.85-0.9 cubeful) for this to be a pass. This looks like a marginal money double if it is one, worth much less than 0.5 cubeless, so I would take. And double of course AtS.

This is not how I would solve this OTB BTW. I would then just note that we are in the race, have an anchor and an equal board, and have opp on the bar with a second blot; I'd realize that this should be a very clear money take with high but not extremely high gammon rates, so I would take this without further work.

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