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BGonline.org Forums
Cube from the roof at -7-3
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Cube from the roof at -7-3 (Klaus Evers)
Date: Wednesday, 1 August 2012, at 2:30 a.m.
The gammonless takepoint should be right around the normal 25%, the 2-cube gammon values favor the trailer ATS by around 60% to 32%, and the trailer's takepoint on a 4-cube (excepting last roll positions) is around 9%. The takepoint is then 25% + 60% of oppt's gammons - 32% of your own. Then deduct approx 1% for your limited recube vig.
The hard part is estimating gammons. If you put yourself on roll in the opening position, you will win about 15% g's. How does this position compare with the opening? White's 22-pt anchor gives him pretty good gammon insurance especially if Blue fails to hit. How bad is it if Blue does hit? White will have 27 ways to enter and still have good chances to get off the gammon. Even if White were to fan, Blue's checkers aren't ideally placed to continue the attack by quickly making his 1 & 2 points. I'll guess around 20% g's for Blue.
How about White's gammons? Blue will either dance, enter and hit, or enter without hitting on his next shake. My guesstimate is that the g's won in these 3 categories will be about 18%.
So the gammon and cube adjusted takepoint becomes 25% + 60%(20%) - 32%(18%) - 1% which is about 30%. Looks like a clear take to me.
(If you want to get real technical, you should also adjust for each sides bg's).
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