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Rollout and variants

Posted By: Klaus Evers
Date: Wednesday, 1 August 2012, at 7:34 p.m.

In Response To: Cube from the roof at -7-3 (Klaus Evers)

Super easy T here:

-7-3
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 142
7 point match
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BB-AC-B--acB----ccbbBA--:0:0:-1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62,54% (G:21,77% B:1,11%) 62,60% (G:21,79% B:1,06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37,46% (G:14,53% B:0,89%) 37,40% (G:14,74% B:1,31%)
Cubeless Equities +0,321 +0,834
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,642 (-0,159)±0,008 (+0,634..+0,649)
Double/Take:+0,801±0,011 (+0,790..+0,812)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,199)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 1-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 7 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Effect of different sores?

-6-3
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 142
7 point match
pip: 135
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BB-AC-B--acB----ccbbBA--:0:0:-1:00:4:1:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62,66% (G:21,70% B:1,12%) 62,93% (G:21,38% B:1,05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37,34% (G:13,99% B:0,38%) 37,07% (G:13,91% B:0,39%)
Cubeless Equities +0,315 +0,805
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,620 (-0,166)
Double/Take:+0,786
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,214)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point

-5-3
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 142
7 point match
pip: 135
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BB-AC-B--acB----ccbbBA--:0:0:-1:00:4:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62,75% (G:21,55% B:1,12%) 62,85% (G:21,57% B:1,07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37,25% (G:13,94% B:0,37%) 37,15% (G:14,01% B:0,41%)
Cubeless Equities +0,285 +0,775
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,565 (-0,148)
Double/Take:+0,713
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,287)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point

-5-2
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 142
7 point match
pip: 135
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BB-AC-B--acB----ccbbBA--:0:0:-1:00:5:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62,70% (G:21,97% B:1,13%) 63,07% (G:21,18% B:0,95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37,30% (G:14,20% B:0,43%) 36,93% (G:13,56% B:0,42%)
Cubeless Equities +0,195 +0,849
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,625 (-0,224)
Double/Take:+0,849
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,151)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point

We need a lead of -4-2 to pass this cube:

-4-2
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 142
7 point match
pip: 135
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BB-AC-B--acB----ccbbBA--:0:0:-1:00:5:3:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62,26% (G:21,67% B:1,09%) 63,22% (G:20,95% B:0,95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37,74% (G:14,14% B:0,40%) 36,78% (G:13,51% B:0,43%)
Cubeless Equities +0,225 +1,188
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,759 (-0,241)
Double/Take:+1,188 (+0,188)
Double/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Thanks as always for all your answers and support.

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