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The Keith Count gives a very conservative result: No Double. Player on roll 59 Raw pip count +2 One extra checker on 1pt +1 One extra checker on 2pt --- 62 Subtotal +8 Add 1/7 (rounding down) --- 70 Keith Count Opponent 56 Raw pip count +4 Two extra checkers on 1pt +1 One extra checker on 2pt +2 Two extra checkers on 3pt +1 Gap on 4pt --- 64 Keith Count Because 70 exceeds 64 by more than 4, the Keith Count rates this as a “no-double.” – Effective Pip Count | ||||||||||||
24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 Player O
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| O O O O O | | O | Pips : 56
| O O O O | | | EPC : 71.3634
| O O O | | | Rolls : 8.73837
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |v Cash game, Jacoby (Cube: 1)
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| X | | |
| X X | | | Rolls : 8.37457
| X X X X X X | | | EPC : 68.3923
| X X X X X X | | | Pips : 59
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Player X
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According to EPC, both players expect to be off in about 8.5 rolls. I believe that makes it “double, take.”
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Market Losers White will be fine so long as he can bear off a checker next turn. Fine, that is, so far as a take is concerned. That means he needs to roll a 5 or 6 (except 54 64), or else roll any doublet except 11. But look what happens when he throws 42 or one of the 9 numbers totaling 5 pips or less. Then we are suddenly in a 7.5-roll-versus-8-roll position, with the leader Blue on roll. That is “double-pass” territory. So, at least 30% of the time, Blue will lose his market. This is a conservative estimate. Blue could also roll big doublets, and lose his market that way. With so many market losers, it is clear that this is a double. And since EPC gives a take, I’ll go with that. Besides, it would have to be an extreme situation (read “crashed board”) for it to be a pass for White when he leads in the pip count. Mike |