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Rollout: What's your favorite formula?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 3 August 2012, at 12:01 a.m.

In Response To: What's your favorite formula? (Timothy Chow)

I was playing against XG and took my time over this decision. I couldn't see a good way of estimating White's EPC. Keith Count gave a very clear ND, so I took a roll. I was quite surprised that the computer thought I had erred. The discussion here has been very helpful; thanks.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 56
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 59
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBCD-------a----ca-ebc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 71.84% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.16% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.84% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.16% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.437
Double:+0.874
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.671 (-0.032)
Double/Take:+0.703
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.297)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.666...+0.676)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+0.696...+0.709)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 48 minutes 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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