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5a5a recube?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 5 August 2012, at 1:41 p.m.

In Response To: 5a5a recube? (Petter Bengtsson)

Don't remember the last time I've seen this position! White's naive 4-cube takepoint is ~ 28%, the 4-cube gammon value is around 23%, and Blue's 8-cube takepoint is approx 16%. I'll guess that White wins 6% g's or bg's. Adjusting for that and the limited recube vig lowers White's takepoint to ~ 25% or so. Cube vig is reduced ATS due to Blue's lower than normal takepoint and to the fact that White will be able to use the cube or his gammon chances to his advantage, but not both.

Does White win this often? 7 numbers fail to hit after which the game's about even. Can White win 5.5 of the remaining 29 games? I think so. Blue might only hit and close out just 1 checker or White might anchor after getting hit and win from there. Looks takeable.

Blue should clearly recube though. Lots of volatility and the take is far from clear.

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