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BGonline.org Forums
20120808 Match Bearoff Cube Big Lead
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: 20120808 Match Bearoff Cube Big Lead (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Thursday, 9 August 2012, at 1:56 p.m.
Does trailer have a take ATS? Pass makes it 3-16C with about 1.5% MWC, take and lose loses the match with 0% MWC, take and win makes it 11-14 with about 29%. So the takepoint is about 5%.
One way to estimate Blue's chances is to start with the pipcounts, then make the Ward count adjustments, and then use Kleinman's D squared/S on the adjusted pip counts. Ward's adjustments make this a 41-64 race which translates to about 3% wins for Blue.
Another method would be to use EPC. White's flat position wastes 10 pips so his EPC is 52. Blue has more checkers on the 6-5-4 points and none on the ace which equals less wastage than White. How much less? If all of Blue's checkers were on the 6-5-4 points, he'd waste 7 pips. Blue does have 4 checkers on the 3 and 2-points however so his wastage is over 7. I'll guess half way in between 7 and 10 for 8.5 wasted pips. This gives Blue an EPC of 68 1/2.
So the EPC's are 52 to 68 1/2. How big a favorite does that make 52? One way to guesstimate this is to imagine a pips position (meaning both sides have all their checkers on their 6-5-4 points) where the EPC's are 52 to 68 1/2. That would make the raw pip counts 45 to 61 1/2. Kleinman's formula gives 45 a little over 92% winning chances in this race.
So the formulas don't agree. Since the leader's redoubling window is tiny ATS, I tend to follow Rich Munitz's advice which is to not redouble until the opponent has a pass. I'm not sure here, so no redouble.
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