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Rollout: More practice with pay now or pay later

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 13 August 2012, at 1:02 a.m.

In Response To: More practice with pay now or pay later (Timothy Chow)

What I thought was interesting about this position was that at most scores it seems to be better to pay later, but at GS it seems to be better to pay now.

A couple of years ago, 6stones advanced the Bold at Gammon Save hypothesis: If at GS it is correct to hit loose instead of a 'safer alternative', then it is highly likely that the same play is correct at GG, DMP and scoreless money play. Here, there's no hit available, but paying now could be considered the "bold" play since it gives the opponent more shots. If we accept that, then this is a position where the bold play is indicated at GS but not at other scores.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 93
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 55
score: 1

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-GAB-bC----B-------ccbbc--:0:0:1:51:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout111/10 11/6eq: +0.025
Player:
Opponent:
55.38% (G:2.59% B:0.00%)
44.62% (G:4.12% B:0.29%)
Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.020...+0.030)
Duration: 18 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 2/1eq: +0.011 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
56.85% (G:1.92% B:0.00%)
43.15% (G:6.28% B:0.34%)
Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.004...+0.018)
Duration: 17 minutes 26 seconds
3.Rollout16/1 3/2eq: -0.016 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
56.28% (G:3.09% B:0.00%)
43.72% (G:7.05% B:0.58%)
Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.023...-0.009)
Duration: 16 minutes 19 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 93
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 55
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-GAB-bC----B-------ccbbc--:0:0:1:51:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout16/1 2/1eq: +0.232
Player:
Opponent:
56.60% (G:0.95% B:0.00%)
43.40% (G:5.39% B:0.23%)
Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.223...+0.241)
Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes
2.Rollout111/10 11/6eq: +0.183 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
55.06% (G:0.51% B:0.01%)
44.94% (G:2.64% B:0.06%)
Conf: ± 0.001 (+0.182...+0.184)
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
3.Rollout16/1 3/2eq: +0.181 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
56.27% (G:1.08% B:0.00%)
43.73% (G:6.51% B:0.24%)
Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.172...+0.190)
Duration: 3 hours 33 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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