Well, in the original position XG dinged me for paying now
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 110 | | 7 point match | pip: 80
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BABCbCB----bB-----bbcbb--:1:1:1:64:4:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | 4-ply | 7/3 7/1 | eq: +0,452 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65,32% (G:4,31% B:0,02%)
34,68% (G:3,20% B:0,06%) | |
|
| 2. | 4-ply | 13/9 13/7 | eq: +0,374 (-0,078) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63,32% (G:3,17% B:0,04%)
36,68% (G:2,41% B:0,05%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point
but then, in the RO, it was close.
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 110 | | 7 point match | pip: 80
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BABCbCB----bB-----bbcbb--:1:1:1:64:4:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/7 | eq: +0,368 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63,29% (G:3,14% B:0,13%)
36,71% (G:3,00% B:0,06%) | Conf.: ± 0,003 (+0,365...+0,371) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/3 7/1 | eq: +0,351 (-0,016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62,99% (G:7,79% B:0,06%)
37,01% (G:5,06% B:0,19%) | Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,346...+0,357) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point
I expected that with fewer shots (65 roll) pay now would be clearly correct, but I was wrong:
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 110 | | 7 point match | pip: 80
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BABCbCB----bB-----bbcbb--:1:1:1:65:4:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/2 7/1 | eq: +0,470 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66,90% (G:7,63% B:0,09%)
33,10% (G:3,49% B:0,10%) | Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,465...+0,475) - [100,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: +0,460 (-0,010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67,59% (G:2,94% B:0,09%)
32,41% (G:2,57% B:0,06%) | Conf.: ± 0,003 (+0,458...+0,463) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point
So, finally, with a better timing for white and no need to break the mid next roll I expected paying now should be right, and this time I was right (both for 64 and 65):
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 119 | | 7 point match | pip: 80
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BABCbCB----cB-----bbbbb--:1:1:1:64:4:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/7 | eq: +0,356 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63,77% (G:3,67% B:0,01%)
36,23% (G:3,04% B:0,07%) | Conf.: ± 0,003 (+0,353...+0,360) - [100,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/3 7/1 | eq: +0,249 (-0,107) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59,52% (G:6,71% B:0,22%)
40,48% (G:5,28% B:0,18%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (+0,244...+0,255) - [0,0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 119 | | 7 point match | pip: 80
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BABCbCB----cB-----bbbbb--:1:1:1:65:4:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: +0,453 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68,16% (G:3,76% B:0,09%)
31,84% (G:2,61% B:0,06%) | Conf.: ± 0,003 (+0,450...+0,456) - [100,0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/2 7/1 | eq: +0,269 (-0,184) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59,85% (G:6,38% B:0,06%)
40,15% (G:4,68% B:0,14%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (+0,263...+0,274) - [0,0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point
Thanks for all your comments and ideas!