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Critcal Cube Action in Masters Final from WI
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Critcal Cube Action in Masters Final from WI (neilkaz)
Date: Tuesday, 14 August 2012, at 12:41 a.m.
Leader's gammonless 2-cube takepoint ATS is right around the normal 25%, 2-cube g values favor the trailer by something like 95%/45%, and the trailer's 4-cube takepoint is his MWC at 4a-Crawford which is ~18.5%.
I'll give Blue around 17% gammon wins here. I'm guessing 4/11 when he hits with an ace and a couple more from his non-hitters. White wins some g's as well since most of Blue's 6s leave a double shot and Blue might break off the 18 with some of his other non-hitting numbers. I'll guess that's around 10% gammon wins for White.
These gammons raise the takepoint to around 36.5%. Now we deduct for recube vig. ATS, the leader can use the cube OR his gammon chances to his advantage, but not both. At a normal score, I think cube vig in this position would be worth about 5% but here I'll only deduct half of that, about 2.5%. The gammon-and-cube adjusted takepoint is then 34%.
Can White win this a third of the time? I definitely think so. White can probably win 2 of the 11 times he's hit, close to half if Blue rolls one of his 5 non-hitting doubles, and over half of the other 21 games. Looks around 41% wins to me.
Should the trailer send it over? Hit/fan certainly loses the market but that's only 7.7/36. At a normal match score, you usually need around 9 market losers to offer an initial cube (assuming you're doing alright on the other 27/36). If you were way behind, I've found that you usually can double when you're within 8% of the opponent's takepoint as long as you have 3 or 4 market losers/36.
ATS, you're only behind by a single point so I think you're better off rolling the dice here. ND/T.
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