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Interesting + Boring BG Problem

Posted By: Pilgrim
Date: Tuesday, 14 August 2012, at 8:05 a.m.

In Response To: Interesting + Boring BG Problem (Bob Koca)

Double/take for me.

The double - even if blue is not favourite (and I suspect he is slight favourite), his match equity is still better playing for match here. My rough calculation (by which I mathematically suspect calculation) is:

if he loses, the loss of match equity is small between 2 way 8 away and loss of match - 12% if he wins, he will gain the difference between a win and 64% match equity - ie 36%;

Put another way, he is risking 12% to gain 36%. I will be happy with a 3-1 payoff in a fiftyish- fiftyish situation.

The take,

Seems to me white's take point is:

Double pass - 4 away 6 away - 36% Double take lose - 0% Double take win - 100%

risk/risk + gain = 26% so a clear take in a fiftyish- fiftyish situation.

Messages In This Thread

• Interesting + Boring BG Problem
  Stick -- Monday, 13 August 2012, at 5:19 p.m.
  • Interesting + Boring BG Problem
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 13 August 2012, at 5:47 p.m.
    • Interesting + Boring BG Problem
      Pilgrim -- Tuesday, 14 August 2012, at 8:05 a.m.
  • Interesting + Boring BG Problem
    sal pittelli -- Monday, 13 August 2012, at 8:21 p.m.
  • Interesting + Boring BG Problem
    higonefive -- Monday, 13 August 2012, at 8:36 p.m.
  • Interesting + Boring BG Problem
    Michael Nielsen -- Thursday, 23 August 2012, at 12:55 a.m.
    • Interesting + Boring BG Problem
      Bill Riles -- Thursday, 23 August 2012, at 1:26 a.m.